ST. LOUIS — After a forgettable Saturday in St. Louis, the Chicago Cubs ended the first half on a high note with an 8-3 win over the Cardinals. They ended the half on an 8-3 run and wrapped up a seven-game trip through Baltimore and St. Louis with a 5-2 record.
“We had a tough road trip in front of us seven days ago,” manager Craig Counsell said. “We played really well. There’s two ways to go into (the break), I guess. But we’re going to go into it the way we wanted to.”
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Here are four takeaways from a first half that started with so much hope and quickly faded before a final hot stretch of play gave the optimists a little bit of hope.
The offense must find more power and depth
The Cubs have a .145 ISO and 98 home runs, both 21st in baseball. But there are specific positions where it gets really bad. From the catcher, second base and center field positions, the Cubs have 19 home runs, tied for last. And that’s after they got four home runs from those spots over the weekend. Add in Miles Mastrobuoni playing more third and that’s a fourth lineup spot that provides little pop.
They also have been getting little production from the seven through nine holes in their lineup. Entering the weekend, those spots were 28th in home runs (16) and 26th in wRC+ (71). It’s less about getting great offensive performances from them and just getting a slightly better one. Especially when considering the Cubs lineup lacks that true superstar.
“That’s how offense works,” Counsell said. “It’s very difficult to rely on three or four people daily. How do you win consecutive games? Different people have to be contributing to the wins. It’s just difficult to count on three people in the lineup to just contribute to all your wins.”
The Cubs can’t rely solely on Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ to carry the offense. Last week, Mastrobuoni, Tómas Nido, Miguel Amaya and Pete Crow-Armstrong all had big offensive moments, showing just how much of a boost it can be when others step up.
Tomas Nido and Pete Crow-Armstrong go back-to-back to give the @Cubs the lead! pic.twitter.com/tBnhG2dOOA
— MLB (@MLB) July 14, 2024
The starting pitching has been exceptional
The Cubs head into the break with a 3.67 ERA from their starting pitching, ninth in the league. This despite Kyle Hendricks, who has shown flashes of his best self of late, holding a 7.71 ERA as a starter.
During their recent hot streak, Cubs starters led the way. The group allowed just two runs during the five-game winning streak, and an offense that finally showed up made sure it all held up.
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“The starting pitching stands out,” Counsell said.
During Saturday’s doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Cardinals, what poor starting pitching does stood out. The Cubs had no chance in the first game after Hayden Wesneski put the team in a big hole early. Javier Assad’s short outing in the second game meant the bullpen had to try and hold a one-run lead for far too many innings.
Starters eating innings and suppressing offense are so key to having success. Even if every other part of the team isn’t clicking, strong starting pitching gives a team hope.
“When you have good starting pitching, you feel like you have a chance to win every night,” Counsell said. “You feel like you’re in every game. That’s what our starters have done all year.”
The Cubs have three starters (minimum 80 innings pitched) — Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon — in the top 10 in the NL in ERA with Assad 12th with a 3.27 ERA.
The defense is starting to come around
Many of the players rated most poorly by outs above average (OAA) this season are either hurt, not on the team anymore or getting more time at DH. Suzuki and Happ are currently the only negatively rated defenders who have regularly played during the Cubs’ nice stretch recently. Outside of the first inning of the first game Saturday, the whole team seemed to be making brilliant defensive plays. Happ, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong each threw out at least one runner on the bases. The entire infield made impressive plays Sunday, as well.
Dansby good Dansby great! pic.twitter.com/B3NnIfFEea
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 14, 2024
“That was incredible,” Taillon said. “I was not even close to my best self today, super hot. Those dudes were flying all over the field. They played a doubleheader (Saturday), they come out (Sunday) playing that kind of D with that kind of effort, that’s pretty inspirational.”
Dansby Swanson is having a tough year at the plate but is still a valuable player due to elite defense at shortstop. Nico ho*rner is one of the best gloves at second base in the game. Crow-Armstong sometimes makes difficult plays look so easy that they can go unnoticed. After a shaky start to the season at first base, Busch has looked strong. Mastrobuoni has looked strong while getting the bulk of playing time at third lately.
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The question will become what happens when Mike Tauchman, who is expected to return after the break, arrives? Does Crow-Armstrong’s play reduce? Does Suzuki shift to DH more and Christopher Morel go back to third? Or does Morel lose playing time to Mastrobuoni, especially when Steele or Hendricks are on the mound? Counsell will have decisions to make as he tries to decide if he’s going offense over defense or vice versa on different days.
Counsell has the even-keeled demeanor this team needs
From spring training to their lowest part of the season to their recent hot stretch, Counsell has remained the same. It’s in those worst moments that players really pay attention and expect their manager to lead.
“You learn a lot about people when things don’t go well,” ho*rner said. “We’ve had plenty of that over the last couple months. I really appreciate his temperament. He’s obviously intense and incredibly aware of everything that’s going on, but not in a way that creates panic for other people. He instills a lot of confidence in us but also maintains a really good sense of humor.”
Intense? Counsell? There are definitely some fans and talking heads who would disagree with that. But in the clubhouse, there’s no doubt about those types of things.
“The actions speak more to that than any quote or loud behavior,” ho*rner said. “The thing that speaks the loudest is how he lives it out every day and how prepared and focused he is on everything he brings to the group. That’s the kind of intensity it takes to win from players, staff and a manager.”
With their manager, Cubs players believe they have one of the best. They’re finally starting to play like the team they hoped to be entering the season. They have to hope that continues through July and the rest of the summer to make sure those two dreadful months don’t end up sinking their season.
(Photo of Christopher Morel and Seiya Suzuki celebrating Morel’s homer Sunday: Jeff Curry / USA Today)
Sahadev Sharma is a staff writer for The Athletic and covers the Chicago Cubs. Previously, Sahadev was a national baseball writer for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Chicago. Follow Sahadev on Twitter @sahadevsharma
